Quick ‘Regional Tier 3’/Scottish Five Level update…
I think the new restrictions around the UK will be enough to get ‘R’ back down under 1 by mid-December (more slowly than it should as a significant minority will not adhere and keep spreading), but at massive economic debt costs and often massive personal costs as a result.
Scotland…looking ahead…oh dear. These new Level 0 and 1 ‘rewards’ for Scots to work towards, they repeat Boris’ over-optimistic slackening and encouragement for indoor household mixing in July/August. This is how to create an exponentially-rising virus for yet a third wave in January onwards from Levels 0 and Level 1 policies that ignore how the virus spreads. The virus can’t actually count to 8 or 15 ya know! (who said most people can’t either?! – especially when they don’t want to!) – or be polite and non-infectious until after Nicola’s threshold of 8-15 is reached.
When will politicians learn how to balance economic production necessity with measures to keep ‘R’ less than 1 long-term? This is nothing like science and more like a Yo-Yo panic and complacency oscillation over the medium-term. We are making this much harder for ourselves than it needs to be!
#systemsthinking #causalloops
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54659056?fbclid=IwAR0VzkTZDe5z63i8svQu-HK9itm80QClu1x21t3No1YECSBRbenSlJiOFAo