Stats update…
The Government 5-4-3-2-1 Covid-19 threat level system is sadly a ridiculous death-producing tool, or being inadvertently used as one. Systems thinking basics is about three things: exponentials, natural cancelling processes, and time lags. This tool does not anticipate or educate as it does not allow for any time lag. But it is being used to inform public behaviour. 🙈🙈.
I am back where I started on 9 March talking about bad use of data by ‘authorities’. I was originally incensed by the terrible BBC (and WHO). BBC saw new hospitalisations doubling every 3-4 days but focused on communicating less useful and mis-named numbers (eg ‘total cases’, ‘new cases’, ‘deaths today’ rubbish) and who should know better about the presentation of statistical data to the public.
Yes we need to get the economy going again. But while taking the Level down to 3 is factually correct (and politically expedient for the more well-off who can more easily protect themselves and their livelihoods from this point through a pandemic), it is not directionally correct. Level 3 behaviour leads to Level 4 results. This Level 3 call has emboldened many people into a false sense of security about their behaviour relative to this virus, which is then self-defeating for the tool. Bad habits re-form from this info and pushes us back towards Level 4. Everything we already know about systems is that when the basics are not understood it leads to repeated cycles, sometimes with increasing amplitude (eg Spanish Flu 1919-20, 1950s free market agricultural prices etc).
I accept some other countries notably Vietnam, Thailand have much lower virulence or transmission – but not in UK and many other places, and until we understand the differences we cannot assume the conditions are the same and copy them. Look at Germany’s recent difficulty.
Luckily we know more now about how it transmits (mainly indoor, mainly through breath and by non-washed, face-touching hands – this is simplistic but a decent start) and there are a lot of sensible people minimising their personal risks as far as they can while making a living (some workers are more exposed than others despite their personal efforts I know), and all these people’s actions improve the ‘fire-break’ of transmission. So R should not ever rise to 3 again anywhere, but we need to run an economy and keep it as far below 1 as possible and eradicate it. Telling the public it’s (for a moment) not increasing exponentially does nothing to help maintain these human fire-breaks. It’s the wrong message.
So ‘keep keeping safe’…keep your Level 4 guard up. It’s where we are heading again in any place in the UK where people don’t take the virus seriously.
Hug only those you know can’t possibly have the virus – and when you know for sure you don’t either!
Have a great week and keep looking for the good and useful facts behind the poor quality media/social media ‘information’. You can do it 😊.