Quick CV19 UK stats forecast for those who asked. It will need updating soon as “exponentials+time-lags+low-testing” doesn’t make forecasting at all easy, but here goes.
New cases per day (not total cases) tops out on 4-8 April at 4-6,000 per day if lockdown reasonable, as growth becomes linear. Tops out earlier if pre-lockdown habits were good, later if lockdown wasn’t strong (I realise there are two different variables here). Personally I think what we are doing is enough.
Sadly, fatalities per day keeps rising til 12-16/4 🙁. Controlled de-lock first discussed when new cases (remember at present this mainly only includes Moderate/Severe but will soon include NHS staff which reduces positive testing % but increases new cases pd but luckily caught early) gets below 500pd which comes a week after (mid-end April) if we are good lockdown boys and girls 🙂.
Fatalities per day never goes near 5 figures, thankfully, but (ugh) may exceed 1000 per day in a couple of weeks for a short period if we haven’t locked down hard enough, or if pre-symptomatic period or time to fatality is longer than I’m estimating.
After that (mid April) our two key stats change to… 1. Managing ‘R’ >1 or < 1 closely (ie. is the lockdown action we are taking leading to fewer infections per day or more?). By then it will be well below 1 but we need to keep it there while considering economy and freedoms, and 2. Hierarchy of de-lock priorities – what are the first activities to allow based on a) economic importance – suggest eg. strategic construction industry, and b) risk level eg. organised outdoor low-density kids activities. Possibly talked about doing by end May. Why not suggest your (sensible) hierarchical list of what you think is de-locked first, as things open up with R held under 1? I know my man Ed (hi Ed) would rather hammer the lock longer and starve the virus altogether despite economic and social short-term harm, to avoid ‘2nd wave’. We will hear in a couple of weeks whether the medical scientists and proper statisticians (unlike educated amateurs like me) think that’s doable.
Keep safe and love one another. Lighter side encouragement…Rule 1 for yourself – don’t put an unsoaped finger into any hole in your skull!…take care and hope my model is too pessimistic. It will be out of date soon I’m sure…hindsight is a wonderful thing.