Quick stats forecast for those who asked…
We are currently losing 800-1100 people per day (from or with) CV19 – including 10% for deaths in the community. But at least it’s not doubling every few days any more as per my last warnings.
At this time of year fatalities for all reasons is usually a bit under 10,000 per week. So with 20% of all those dying having CV19 (2,000pw), CV19 is clearly still a major reason for a large % increase in deaths compared to other years, unless 20% of the population is currently running around with CV19 which they aren’t. So CV19 is far more deadly than flu (though 90+% of cases are Mild/Moderate) and much more infectious, unchecked. The age/vulnerability factor is a big one of course, though actuaries say most people dying had at least 5 years more to live, often many more.
Maybe there are some dying ‘with’, but not ‘from’, CV19 (and would have recovered) but not really that many I think from the above argument. So the overall direct death toll so far is probably about 10k and has been reduced by 10x to date by lockdown, as it was doubling every 3 days (=1000x worse in a month, amazingly). Are we close to everyone ‘who could get it has had it’? Nowhere near in my view. A clear minority have had it. With 2000 new Mod/Severe cases per day average until recently and 95% mild or asymptomatic that’s 40,000 per day getting it. So with 4-5k per day new Mod/Severe cases recently (who caught it around lockdown time and in close family units just after), maybe still as low as 1.5m-4m have had it? All we’ve done so far (although it’s a massive achievement) is just flattened the curve to fit Severe cases through NHS capacity. Very successfully balanced in numbers terms, if that’s the plan. These exponential things are v difficult to get the timing right for. So maybe the ‘plan’/fatality allowance (an inevitably horrible policy business) is for 100k a day to catch it, 5k Moderate/Severe, 500-1k pd fatalities but NHS coping – managed by controlled de-lock within a few weeks. Sounds nasty but then most get it in 2020 except for protected vulnerable and it’s largely over. But easily towards 50k+ fatalities. Or we reduce fatalities at cost of economy and a longer process, and holding out for vaccine to truncate the process then.
As always, I wonder if I will be way out as conditions change, but that’s my best latest guess.
In general CV19 most easily attacks densely-populated areas of federalised and fiercely libertarian heterogeneous democracies (eg USA, urban Italy) more easily than more centrally-planned rural economies and homogeneous societies (therefore eg. Sweden I think can escape the worst results soon). UK social fabric surviving well so far, despite the many complaints (some justified, some unrealistic judgements and comparisons). Sensible comments to help are welcome.