Forget the rhetoric – How key demographics actually voted and what it means.
My degree is in statistics and economics (UCL)…I particularly liked Statistical Inference, in other words, what CAN and CAN’T you reliably say (infer) from a set of data. And then The Presentation of Statistical Data matters too – what to show, so that people can understand easily what the data means. It’s also an ethically responsible job, as conscious and unconscious bias means we can fail to present fairly.
Anyway, with that in mind, here’s a summary, not a large analysis, that quickly gets to the nub of a few things about US Presidential election voting patterns. In particular, Democrats wanting to do better next time need to reflect on some key facts (Statista et al):
Trump won only 7% of black women voters, and that’s awful. But he won 44% of all women voters (including black women). This means that about half of non-black women voted for Trump. Did you expect that? Why would they? (while resisting the temptation to demonise or condescend). I’d suggest it means Democrat policies were awful in electoral terms. Democrats misread what women actually want. What did they want that was NOT what the Democrats were offering? One thing is that polling clearly suggests women want safe spaces and fair sporting competition – ie. definitions of women – and that it’s not a perpheral issue. What other things were there?
Dems talk about empathy, and ‘meeting people where they are’. But Trump won 62% of working class (non-graduate) women and 70% of such men. Either the working class are stupid (a very dangerous thing to think if you’re trying to get elected, and I have more respect for people than that), or the Dems sounded condescending to the working class. Treating your core vote like this is not sensible.
54% of Latino and Hispanic men and nearly 40% of Latino/Hispanic women voted Trump. Yes MOST Latino/Hispanic men. Also one in five black men voted Trump.
42% of 18-29 year olds voted Trump. That destroys the narrative of an ageing male, pale and stale and an old/young divide.
Then let’s remember white people represent only 58% of the population. No-one coming across as a ‘white supremacist’ can win. Despite some awful statements, people see it’s an act to make a wider point, and Trump is not seen anywhere near as racist as mainstream media has implied.
Trump also:
Received 25% of the black male vote in GA
Received 39% of the Asian vote
Received 60% of the Latino vote in MI
Received 46% of the Latino vote nationwide
Received 65% of the Native American vote
Won Baldwin county, GA (41% black), making him the first Republican to win since 2004
Won Anson county, NC (40% black), making him only the second Republican to win since Reconstruction
Won Starr County, TX (97% Latino), making him the first Republican to win since 1892.
Overall, one in three Americans of color voted for Trump.
Most significantly, while Trump’s support among white voters dropped from 57% in 2020 to 49% in 2024, his support among black and Latino voters increased from 38% to 42%.
Free-thinker Andrew Doyle asks,”The question now is: will the Democrats reflect on their failure or will they double down?” My response is:
The ‘right of the left’ will reflect; the ‘left of the left’ has already doubled down. Self-reflection is not in the incentive structure of the ego of the ‘left of the left’; only projection and transference. This (or any other observable event) further exaggerates cognitive distortion, with no corrective feedback mechanism.
So the ‘right of the left’ have to get rid of the ‘left of the left’ if they want the left to win in a democracy. Or let the ‘left of the left’ try to win – but that’s only achieved, in aspiration and intent, by removing democracy. Which do we want?