Ok, for those who asked….latest stats update with this fast multiplying virus…. So 40 Covid-19 fatalities today in UK. Up from 107 total yesterday. We know the ‘cases’ figure stuffed at us on the awful BBC News stats so far is meaningless. That’s only those tested, not what’s out there. But the fatality rate tells us a lot about how many people now have it. We know those 40 got it 2 weeks ago. If 1% overall mortality rate (seriously age/vulnerability distributed i know) thats 4000 people who got it that day 2 weeks ago. So just how many people had it 2 weeks ago that 4000 caught it that day?! 1 in 10 says 40,000 had it with 10% probability that an infected person infects another that day. Follow me?
With fatality rate doubling every 2-3 days, we could estimate the community infection total is same. That means 4000×2 power 5 = 32x 4000 = 128,000 have it now (but new infections don’t know it), and 1% will die. So in two weeks time the number who died that day will not be 40 like today. It will be 1,280. That day. 2 April. That’s even with perfect lockdown today (as these people already have it). Every day and doubling every 2-3 days (think about it) until lockdown starts working hopefully after 2-3 weeks. Whoosh for impending NHS demand now 🙁🙁. Huge multiple overload to shorten by lockdown.
The answer is for us all to lockdown with huge commitment and hold on til the new cases rate slows in a few weeks, til severe cases rate = back down towards 100% of NHS capacity. Then controlled partial de-lock can be considered, like China, plus we’ll know more by then. The tighter our lock, the shorter it will be, and the less the economy is destroyed.
I’d love to be wrong…hang on and work together. Stay creative at home and enjoy the simple things 😊. We must starve this thing out.