Covid – Quick Stats Update – Delock? – 6th April 2020

Quick stats update for those who asked…No real change in my forecast from my previous forecast written 31 March.  Yesterday’s spike in reported new cases keeps us unsure of the peak of new cases (I estimated it would start to top out 2 weeks after lockdown). So hope for ‘daily new cases’ to start to top out this week then fall solidly. If so, the plan towards ‘controlled de-lock’ is still on. Already the Secretary of State for BusinessEIS has written to the construction industry to encourage them to work where safe to do so. If ‘new Moderate/Severe cases per day’ gets and stays under 4,000 (horrible I know) then NHS will be under heavy pressure but not totally overwhelmed as feared. This allows consideration of further de-lock (or a policy of quick harder lock to starve the virus completely) before end of April.