Quick? stats update for those who asked…
Blame, Looking Back, Looking Forward, Irony and Black America/Covid stats (next time)…
Well last week we said the Blame stage of Covid is well in swing (Dominic Cummings, media both ways, party political echo chambers on social media etc).
In a way, this blame is an expression of relief. People have short memories. Last weekend of February I enjoyed a weekend with my kids at the English Senior Nationals Table Tennis (Sam got a medal 😊). No-one mentioned anything about a virus (though I knew there was some vague background about a new virus in China. Not a peep from me or anyone in conversation though). I started writing on this topic 9 March. The virus got hold, and quickly became worse. We did not know where the exponential increase in infections would stop. It was a very scary situation nationally. We had 1000 deaths per day on a sharply rising trend within a few short weeks.
Had the fatality rate of the virus been unstoppable (R=1 or over even with lockdown) we were staring at 500,000 fatalities by now with a totally overwhelmed NHS ICU service. Total national disaster. Remember that at the time (pre-Italy peak) we had no idea whether a ‘Western-style lockdown-lite’ in a democratic nation could match the effectiveness of the Chinese authoritarian ‘throw your cat and dog out of your 12th-storey flat right now and stay there for as many months as we say and we will shoot you if you come out’.
So UK fatalities is 10% of the worst-case nightmare scenario. But like we said back then, ‘lockdown works’ and almost all countries followed Wuhan with a form of lockdown and it worked and so we reversed the trend within a few weeks. Phew! But with a semblance of relief and restored control comes a false memory that it was always plannable, always controllable, and therefore the path taken is easily blame-able. It wasn’t. It was a dynamic, emergent situation requiring a wide range of complex assessments and decisions, sometimes on an hourly basis. And for anyone ‘in charge’, all with a sense of panic, brain freeze, personal incompetence (some of course true, some only induced by fear), plus complex group dynamics in a melee of a situation. Add to that a rabid media and political opoosition dragging you away from your focus to attend to their own panic and complaints. Not easy. My Dad was a lifelong Civil Servant, meeting sometimes with Ministers. That’s the demand on Ministers, who are not experts, but ordinary(?) people who put themselves up for election as MPs and then may get invited into Government positions in a strange portfolio. In our democracy, what more can you expect?! Even then, there may have been a lot to be desired in government minister performance I agree. And the whole strategy is arguable. But it’s a good example of the normal irony that it’s the (partial) success that gives rise to the blame. ‘The fear comes out when the fear recedes’. Hence the excessive scapegoating right now. It will calm a bit in months to come, except from the most passionate opponents. Unless of course, an objective review next year opens large questions of impropriety not known to us currently.
Which brings me to the second statistical irony. As you know I’m a critic of so-called ‘Remoaners’. And it’s the current Government critics who actually put Boris, Dominic Cummings and co there in the first place of course. Why? Well, 2019 was clearly the Brexit election. In 2016 we finally had a vote on whether to Leave the EU or Remain in it. Rightly or wrongly 1.4 million more people voted to Leave than Remain. That margin is far and away enough to secure a safe parliamentary majority in our system (look it up). But some losing Remainers became Remoaners and fought the democracy of it. I happen to think democracy is important, and seemingly a lot of other people do. Because faced with a back-track on Brexit (Remainer Theresa May doing her best to get a compromise path), Labour plan (whatever that was), or a clear Boris Brexiteer plan, the electorate reiterated strongly for Brexit (or the democratic principle involved). Tell me I’m wrong about this, but give me a proper stats-based alternative narrative if so.
Lots of people already thought Boris was lacking in truth-telling and in detail ability (Michael Gove himself did so famously in 2016). But following this narrative, it was this unfolding that forced millions of ordinary people (14m of them actually) to have to vote for this dodgy affable chap Boris to ‘Get Brexit Done’. So no point complaining about their ways now. It could have been a very different Government had these remainer people organised themselves differently.
Back to this week and we see that most of those who were trying to leverage out Dominic Cummings last week (rightly or wrongly) are actually these ones who put him exactly where he is. And while his behaviour was arguable at best, it’s possibly far more about undermining Brexit again. Did you see the behaviour of the media photographer melee he has to put up with every day? Not a semblance of respect for social distancing. Every day they could probably infect him. Sack Cummings, but if so, sack the controllers of all the media companies too who accept the pictures. Disgraceful media behaviour – and of course that culpability was not mentioned in the self-righteousness of eg Newsnight. To be honest, had I been DC I would have done exactly the same safe escape. His is not a safe house to live in with a family of Covid infections and a rabid, infected, merciless and uncaring press at the door. That’s my judgement anyway. Not sure about Bernard Castle mind!
So we get Boris and co for a covid situation. Not ideal, though mercifully some around have clear objective and detail skills like Rishi Sunak and the Professors and a few more decent Ministers. That’s just the way it is now. Almost more importantly I hope someone can make them into a good team.
Coming up then…enjoy a heavy political year as the government are constantly attacked as if it were an Election year. The Opposition and the EU will be attacking the government under pretence of Covid to stop Brexit again by 31 July and then 31 December.
But if we are refocusing on Brexit, it must mean people think there is a valuable life beyond Covid, of a sort, to fight over…but Covid still works away at killing many and often. And the ones we should protect most. Sadly.
Black America/Racial/Covid stats next time I hope…
Keep tight and enjoy the outdoors and physical activity where you can.
Have a good week.