Quick stats update….
A good question from Martin on his feed…. ”Which Table Tennis club will be the first to close due to a second covid outbreak?”
Well, hopefully none, as distanced/hygiene TT is not a super spreader environment like a pub/dense factory. Interesting though.
So… we were closed 13 March in the first outbreak. Looking back, this date of 13 March was only 12 days after the Senior TT Nationals, where no-one even mentioned Covid-19 or Coronaviruses. Then within a month of closing, UK was getting 1,000 UK fatalities per day. So it can spread fast from a low base and kill 2-10% of older or vulnerable people.
It has not gone away. Summer may be helping the mid-risk environments to stay lower – we know the half-life of covid-19 (cov-sars-2) like many non-novel coronaviruses is far lower in higher temperature and in ultra violet light (latter up to 100x).
But Hereford and Leicester remind us his thing spreads quickly if we give it the conditions to do so, and there’s every reason to think October through Winter to come, may be more virulent like March/April. It may mutate by then to less dangerous – but that can’t be gambled on.
The main things to remember:
1. It’s the Over 50s and vulnerable it hits badly. Young and fit kids and adults rarely get it badly, but they do spread it to the at-risk groups. Schoolkids spread it much less, many experts think. I hope they are right.
2. We cannot afford a second lockdown – the economics are already going to be horrendous, and felt badly in coming months as furlough and Govt ££ slows. And 2021 & 2022 will be really horrible for unemployment. We just need to work safely.
3. It’s a global phenomenon (definition of pandemic) but don’t think of it in averages as you watch the national news. That makes you feel helpless – it’s not a good mindset. Remember it spreads from individual to individual – one person at a time…mainly through breath or a touched surface, and indoors far more likely than outdoors. Simples…
4. So indiscipline by irresponsible people is still awful – it makes them responsible for killing people by giving them the virus unnecessarily – not nice but a sobering truth.
5. So what to do…One good way to proceed post-lockdown is a new personal vigilance. As well as hygiene and distancing (it’s more accurately physical distancing not social distancing) – consider the environment you are entering and imagine where this invisible virus could be…on people, on surfaces, in breath. See it like you are wearing X-ray specs. And maintain that view and manage your movements accordingly.
6. By being as safe as poss, you are one more ‘fire-break’ that breaks the chain of the virus. We have learned that these human ‘fire-breaks’ are how we kill it off – the virus can’t live long outside the human body. It dies very quickly (usually in minutes outdoors or hours indoors) if we don’t quickly give it a new human (you or your loved ones) to thrive in.
So we can beat this nationally by being a personal fire-break as far as poss, and encouraging others to take responsibility for being a fire-break too. It’s an optimistic message – we win nationally by personal and local means repeated across our whole land. And we dont have to be perfect. A good all-round effort will do (on average!).
Enjoy summer – keep finding and looking after those finding it difficult economically or mentally 😊.