OK, OK a ‘Quick’ Stats Update by popular demand! (sorry I’ve been really busy)…
So…welcome to the Second Wave of Covid, as we outlined in July. No surprise here. The Government saw the dire long-term economic consequences of Wave 1 and over-optimistically tried rapid (rabid?) opening up of close-quarters. ‘1m minus’ social contact (public transport, pubs etc), was done in hope rather than science, which also gave people the impression the virus was beaten and so encouraged the worst non-protective culture and habits possible. Crazy in an exponential (fast-accelerating) system and with February/March’s exponential experience to learn from, because it is individuals, not government policy directly, that stops or transmits this virus. In my opinion this totally unscientific messaging to the public was the biggest communications mistake of all so far. The virus hasn’t changed its characteristics of course, and familiar coronaviruses of all kinds love cold rather than warm temperatures. So we are now facing the need to limit the economy severely again, with an infection level as high as March, but are now totally skint as a country from Wave 1 to support the economy. And the virus has been pushed into a new peak (of impending hospitalisations) at the start of Winter, when NHS demand is always at its height. Ugh.
So it’s going to be a long, hard Winter until the sun comes out (metaphorically with treatments etc, and physically) in April. Ah, well. But no completely easy solutions I suppose. So just batten down whatever hatches you can. I have been in Sweden recently and while they have suffered too, their brave pro-economic approach, low population density and relatively very high social cohesion means they have a fairly intact economy to face the Winter with.
The partially saving grace for UK is that this time round we know more about the virus (treatments are better, infrastructure is better prepared, though key workers will get burned out) and we know better how to reduce and avoid transmission from person to person. So infections have doubled every fortnight recently, whereas it was doubling every 3-4 days in Feb/March. Which is actually 4x slower growth or R < 2 not the previous 3.5.
So we won’t see 1,000 deaths per day again I hope, but it will be back in the hundreds per day for a significant while. That’s equivalent to maybe 50-100,000 pa (though it won’t last that long) or 3-6x worse than flu, even with restrictions. In terms of overall stats, I don’t actually mind if fit Under 55s catch Covid. It’s nasty for some but in the grand scheme of Public Health the level of death and damage (long Covid) is not worth killing the economy and freedoms for. But to avoid rule-based restrictions these people have to explain how they will not pass it on to the millions of Over 55s and younger vulnerable people. And as yet I haven’t heard this. “Isolate for 2 years if you are Over 55 or vulnerable, while we play” is not a responsible or viable enough strategy. Or at least no means of delivering it yet. We may yet have to get creative about separating young and old better.
While most cases in August and September were in low risk groups (and deaths down to the teens per day), the graphs show no ability of us yet to contain the virus within low-risk groups as it accelerates. The large number of recent young adult cases are sadly currently running up and up through the age categories. And you know what that will mean for November and December fatalities.
So we have to bring the general R back to about 0.7 as before to reduce daily infections consistently again. And then keep it there with an open economy. Actually K is an even better figure to locate – it is thought that some individuals are super-spreaders and some not, but we have no world-class TT&I system to identify this, if you weren’t already aware of that!
What I don’t like is the plethora of arbitrary rules in every industry, confusing and some of which are unnecessary. It’s a non-scientific scheme of immense detail, and exception-based detail at that. I understand the exceptions are to enable more economic activity, but I think fewer, simpler, clear virus-behaviour-based laws (yes, rules, not guidelines) would be better accepted by the public. It would release some industries, but it would mean allowing lame-duck industries that rely on ‘close-quarters indoor crowd contact’ to innovate or collapse (close-quarters pubs, nightclubs, some airlines, fast-moving indoor environments). 2m distancing, restricted density, masks indoors in public, and one-way systems with rapid frequent surface cleaning will do it. Not an economic lockdown. We can’t afford it. But yes, restricted household mixing. Outdoor gatherings with controlled social distancing and density-movement limits are fine. Actually I think these ‘social’ indoor industries would complain bitterly but offer no solution, and would then innovate to 2m physical distancing and frequent cleaning of surfaces, with new ideas and business models in some cases, though many would (will anyway) collapse, sadly.
Whatever furlough etc we do now will be limited by cost. Manchester etc in Tier 3 only get about £100 pp but in millions across the country it pushes Gov’t debt over 100% of GDP – and the red line is 90%. Expect unemployment to rocket now (increases on the scale of perhaps 100,000 per month) and become even higher than in Margaret Thatcher’s famous second term within 18 months.
So….cardigan on for Winter and don’t get infected if at all possible – before you know you have it you’ll give it to someone who gives it to someone with a 15% chance of fatality or severe chronic problems from it. Keep well and keep economically active as safely as you can. It won’t last forever. Really.
Next time we’ll look at the use, value and limits of quantitative easing and government borrowing in all this, and explain how come your house (rented or owned) is ‘worth’ more than ever despite the current and impending economic hardship. Odd isn’t it, until you know how Governments organise their monetary policy (hmm….!).